At 73, Vladimir Putin has reached the average age at which Russian leaders die. The clock is ticking on the country’s longest-serving leader since Stalin, but how will his reign end? A leading Russia expert has revealed the most likely scenario in a new Daily Mail show, ranking five potential ways the dictator could fall, from assassination to coup.

Watch the latest episode of the Daily Mail’s Future Headlines series by clicking below. 

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Dr John Kennedy, Head of the Russia and Eurasia programme at RAND Europe, told Foreign Correspondent David Averre that despite mounting internal pressure over Russia’s botched invasion of Ukraine, Putin will most likely die in power.

That could come sooner than many expect, Kennedy predicted, pointing to credible reports of Putin seeking alternative treatments for undisclosed health issues.

Despite Russia’s economic decline since the invasion began and the loss of close to a million men, Kennedy ranked scenarios of Putin being forcibly removed from power as unlikely.

At 73, Vladimir Putinhas reached the average age at which Russian leaders die. The clock is ticking on the country’s longest-serving leader since Stalin, but how will his reign end?

Dr John Kennedy has revealed the most likely scenario in a new Daily Mail show, ranking five potential ways the dictator could fall, from assassination to coup

He argued that Putin’s installation of allies in all key positions of power, coupled with the brutal suppression of dissent, means the dictator will likely remain President until his death.

‘Everybody is reliant on Putin’, Kennedy told the Daily Mail’s Future Headlines series.

‘He promotes his friends. All the cadres around Putin are former colleagues. He has totally centred power around himself and this has only intensified since the full scale invasion of Ukraine.

‘After the death of Alexei Navalny, we haven’t seen the groundswell of any popular movements against him, at a party or regional level. It’s very difficult to foresee him being deposed unless circumstances change.

‘The most plausible scenario is that Putin dies in power, given that he’s built a system with total loyalty at its centre. Then there would have to be some very quick shuffling – the cadres would have to come together and bargain for power.’

However, Kennedy could not dismiss the prospect of Putin being assassinated – though not by Moscow’s ruling elite, but by regional factions who have borne the brunt of the Ukraine war.

Kennedy could not dismiss the prospect of Putin being assassinated – though not by Moscow’s ruling elite, but by regional factions who have borne the brunt of the Ukraine war

Much of the Russian army is composed of conscripts taken from impoverished, agricultural regions of the country

Much of the Russian army is composed of conscripts taken from impoverished, agricultural regions of the country. These areas have historically resisted Moscow’s control, with Chechnya fighting two brutal wars for independence in the 1990s and 2000s.

Kennedy explained: ‘There is a really significant difference between life in Moscow and life in the various regions of Russia.

‘We know that many of Russia’s regions are poor and their future outlook is not looking too rosy.

‘Over time, especially with the diversion of resources towards the war effort, a situation emerges that allows for grievances to ferment and at some point, come to the fore… an assassination could happen, and it could have a regional dimension to it.

‘However, Putin is obsessed with his own security. He’s coming into the public eye less and less. That could be because he’s ill, tired or paranoid – or a mix of all three.

‘He is, however, a very secure president, as far as we know. Security services and the military all have a vested interest in protecting him.

Kennedy warned that Putin’s days are numbered and called on the West to prepare now for the chaos that could follow his death

‘At the same time, assassinations do happen. He still has to visit Russia’s allies and the regions – there will be opportunities. Do I think it’s a likely scenario? It’s no less likely than anything else. It’s absolutely possible that somebody has enough grievance, given the situation in Ukraine, to want to kill him.’

Kennedy warned that Putin’s days are numbered and called on the West to prepare now for the chaos that could follow his death.

He said: ‘If we take a medium to long term view, the situation in Russia is ripe for change.

‘Whether it ends up being a change led by those around him, or whether it’s a democratic uprising or military coup, it’s necessary to plan for all of these contingencies.’

Watch the full episode of Future Headlines now on YouTube.