Tories are hitting the panic button after shock new polls showed the party being reeled in by a Nigel Farage-led Reform – with one even showing them level.
YouGov research yesterday found Nigel Farage’s insurgents were on 17 per cent after his dramatic U-turn on standing at the election – barely behind the Conservatives on 19 per cent.
But that was under an updated methodology from the firm, and details using its previous technique revealed the parties would have been neck and neck on 18 per cent each.
And tonight a new poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies shows the Tories with just a two-point lead, 19 per cent to 17 per cent – equalling its lowest ever polling by the Conservatives. It also found that Reform is ahead of the Tories among male voters.
The figures underline the scale of the challenge Rishi Sunak faces from Reform, as Labour retains a massive lead and looks set for a 1997-style landslide.
There are concerns the Tories could suffer a scenario similar to Labour in the 1980s when the SDP gained roughly the same proportion of votes as the Opposition – although far fewer seats.
Some Conservatives are urging the party to start deploying a version of David Cameron’s tactics from 2015, warning voters that if they ‘go to bed with Nigel Farage they will wake up with Keir Starmer’.
Rishi Sunak is facing a huge challenge from Reform and new leader Nigel Farage
YouGov research yesterday found Nigel Farage ‘s insurgents were on 17 per cent after his dramatic U-turn on standing at the election – barely behind the Conservatives on 19 per cent. But that was under an updated methodology from the firm, and details using its previous technique revealed the parties would have been neck and neck on 18 per cent each
Anger has also resurfaced about Mr Sunak’s decision to call an early election, something that was initially thought to have prevented Mr Farage from standing. Some now suspect it has meant he did not need to choose between the UK election and stumping for his ally Donald Trump in the US in the Autumn.
Other Tories complain that Mr Farage should have been offered a peerage before to prevent him trying for the Commons.
The YouGov fieldwork was carried out on Monday and Tuesday, after Mr Farage announced he would take over the reins as leader once again, and stand as an election candidate in Clacton.
Among Leave voters, YouGov found 35 per cent would vote Reform.
By contrast, the Tories saw their vote share fall from 38 per cent in the firm’s poll at the end of May to 31 per cent.
Labour’s share of support from ‘Leave’ voters in the referendum also fell 3 points, to 20 per cent.
Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice told ITV’s Peston show there had been ‘no sign’ of the Tories being successful in their bid to reduce the size of the Reform vote.
He added: ‘It may well be one of the reasons why Nigel Farage has decided to enter the campaign at this late stage is he thinks the prospects for his party are rather brighter than they might otherwise have been.
‘It’s worth bearing in mind that Reform’s standing in the polls at the moment is already higher than it was at this stage in the last election, when the Brexit Party eventually withdrew its candidates.’
Sir John agreed with a suggestion that Rishi Sunak had been ‘irrational’ in calling the general election earlier than most people had expected.
He added: ‘From his personal point of view we have already seen the mistake writ large.
‘My argument was he might as well take the two years, bank the two years as Prime Minister, and use that to get through the legislation that might eventually lead to the end of cigarette smoking in this country.
‘He’s decided to go early and he’s lost his legislation on trying to end tobacco smoking.
‘I assume Labour will try to pick it up and, as a result, Keir Starmer will claim the credit in the history books rather than Rishi Sunak.`
‘That doesn’t strike me as a very wise move for a politician.’
Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice told ITV’s Peston show there had been ‘no sign’ of the Tories being successful in their bid to reduce the size of the Reform vote
Former Scottish Tory leader Baroness Ruth Davidson said there were Conservative colleagues in England who were ‘deeply, deeply worried’ that the early election had handed Mr Farage an opportunity to make a political comeback
Former Scottish Tory leader Baroness Ruth Davidson said there were Conservative colleagues in England who were ‘deeply, deeply worried’ that the early election had handed Mr Farage an opportunity to make a political comeback.
She added: ‘There is a supposition that, should this have been an October or November election, he would have been too busy in the US – where he has done a lot of work since he left the European Parliament – and he wouldn’t have been able to come back.’
One Tory source told MailOnline: ‘They need to they need to raise the level of jeopardy and risk. Everyone was saying Farage will electrify the campaign, but if you’re a Tory voter – be careful what you wish for.
‘How do you take Farage apart? It doesn’t really work attacking him directly… you have to say ”the consequence of this is going to be this”.’
Buy me a coffee