The REAL nightmare before Christmas: Covid rates double in a fortnight with up to one in 16 people now infected in worst-hit parts of UK

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  • Experts estimate more than 2.5million Brits were carrying the virus last week
  • The highest rates were logged in London and the South East with 6.1% and 4.8% 

Covid is sweeping the UK once again, with infections more than doubling in just a fortnight.

One in 24 people across England and Scotland had the virus in the week to December 13, up from one in 55 two weeks earlier, according to surveillance data. 

But that figure rises to one in 16 in London — the worst-hit area, according to figures from the UK Health Security (UKHSA) and Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Virus-related hospital admissions are also on the up, the NHS has warned. 

Health chiefs fear the outbreak will continue to pick up pace in the coming weeks as more people socialise indoors over Christmas and the New Year.    

 

 

The joint UKHSA and ONS data incorporates responses from 150,000 participants and 30,000 lateral flow test results per week.

Its data suggests 4.2 per cent of people in England and Scotland (2.5million) were infected in the week to December 13. 

This is more than double the 1.8 per cent recorded in the previous fortnight, up to November 29.

In England, some 4.3 per cent were infected (2.3million) with Covid in the latest week. In Scotland, the figure stood at 215,000 (4.1 per cent).

Professor Steven Riley, director general for data and surveillance at the UKHSA said: ‘At this time of year, the cold weather, shorter days and increased socialising mean the potential for transmission of respiratory viruses like Covid is particularly high.’

‘This, as well as the possible impact of new variants, means it’s not unexpected to see cases increasing.’

Within English regions, rates were highest in London and the South East of England, which logged 6.1 and 4.8 per cent respectively. 

They were followed by the East of England with 4.4 per cent. 

It was lowest, meanwhile, in both the East and West Midlands which both recorded a rate of 3.4 per cent. 

The data also revealed that cases appear to be highest among younger people aged between 18 and 44. 

Rates have almost tripled in a month among 18 to 34 year olds, with December 13 logging 5.8 per cent, up from the 2.1 per cent recorded on November 14. 

Among 35 to 44-year-olds, the rate was also 5.7 per cent, up on the 2 per cent on November 14. 

Infection rates were lowest among the elderly, which recorded rates of 2.6 per cent on December 13, in 65 to-74 year-olds and 2 per cent for those aged 75 and over. 

UKHSA chiefs noted, however, that the sample sizes used to estimate prevalence for each age group are smaller than the overall study’s sample size, meaning there is higher uncertainty compared to national infection estimates. 

Current Covid infection levels are in line with those detected in mid-January, when cases were declining from the winter peak of around 1.7million, according to a separate Covid monitoring project, ran by health-tech firm ZOE. 

However, separate NHS data released today shows Covid cases in hospital are also rising, up more than a third in the last four weeks. 

There were 3,390 virus patients in hospital on December 17, up 38 per cent on the 2,452 logged on November 19. 

This is also an increase of 12 per cent in a week from the 3,024 logged on December 10. 

Separate ONS data on Covid infections today also showed symptoms including headaches, a runny nose and coughing were among three of the most common Covid symptoms reported in the week ending December 13. Other frequently logged symptoms also included muscle ache, a sore throat and tiredness

Separate ONS data on Covid infections today also showed symptoms including headaches, a runny nose and coughing were among three of the most common Covid symptoms reported in the week ending December 13. Other frequently logged symptoms also included muscle ache, a sore throat and tiredness

However, separate NHS data released today shows Covid cases in hospital are also rising, up more than a third in the last four weeks. There were 3,390 virus patients in hospital on December 17, up 38 per cent on the 2,452 logged on November 19. This is also an increase of 12 per cent in a week from the 3,024 logged on December 10

However, separate NHS data released today shows Covid cases in hospital are also rising, up more than a third in the last four weeks. There were 3,390 virus patients in hospital on December 17, up 38 per cent on the 2,452 logged on November 19. This is also an increase of 12 per cent in a week from the 3,024 logged on December 10

The figures also revealed the number of patients in hospital with flu is four times higher than the end of last month.

An average of 648 patients per day were hospitalised in the week ending December 17, compared to 160 on November 26. It’s also two thirds higher than the 402 logged at the end of December 10. 

Winter vomiting bug norovirus also continued to pile pressure on hospitals, with an average of 566 patients in hospital per day — up 10 per cent on the previous week (506).

It is also around 55 per cent higher than the same week last year (364).

Professor Sir Stephen Powis, NHS national medical director, said: ‘Today’s figures show that winter is well and truly with us and frontline staff are managing increased pressures due to even more flu, covid and norovirus.

What do we know about JN.1?

JN.1 was first spotted by the UKHSA as part of routine horizon scanning – the process of monitoring emerging infections with the potential to affect the UK.

The variant was flagged because it contained a L455S mutation in the spike protein. This is known to help the virus dodge immune protection built up from previous infection and vaccination.

It was also taking off internationally as well as in the UK, the UKHSA noted.

This led the agency to designate the strain an official variant earlier this month, labelling it V-23DEC-01 – a process that means it is formally being tracked.

As of December 16, 7,344 JN.1 infections have been confirmed across 41 countries, the WHO confirmed this week. 

It represents 27.1 per cent of all Covid infections globally.  

Of these, 422 (5.6 per cent of all infections) cases were logged in the UK.  

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‘While NHS staff across the country are doing everything they can to get as many people as possible home in time for Christmas, we are aware the latest strikes could an impact on almost all routine care including likely difficulties discharging patients.’

He added: ‘We have already said we expect this to be the most challenging winter yet with strike action in the mix, and high occupancy in our hospitals is deeply concerning as our hardworking staff juggle seasonal viruses and strikes going into Christmas.’

For weeks, health chiefs have also warned about a rise in cases and hospitalisations driven by Covid sub-variant JN.1, which is massively outperforming every other known strain. 

UKHSA chiefs have designated it an official variant, labelled it V-23DEC-01. The process means it is formally being tracked.

It was first spotted by the UKHSA as part of a routine scheme designed to assess emerging infections and flagged because of a troublesome mutation in its spike protein, one known to help the virus dodge the body’s immune system.

UKHSA chiefs noted the particular strain was also taking off internationally as well as in the UK.

Separate ONS data on Covid infections today also showed symptoms including headaches, a runny nose and coughing were among three of the most common Covid symptoms reported in the week ending December 13. 

Other frequently logged symptoms also included muscle ache, a sore throat and tiredness.

Covid infection rates, however, are nowhere near levels seen earlier in the pandemic.

Infections climbed as high as 4.3million last winter during the spread of the original Omicron — but this was topped a few months later, when the number reached a record 4.9million. 

The threat of Covid has been drastically reduced by the wall of immunity built up by vaccines and infections. 

As such, in many people it can now typically cause an illness similar to the flu, as opposed to the potentially lethal symptoms experienced in 2020. 

A potential surge in cases would, however, cause chaos in the NHS, which is already seeing a surge in patients from a norovirus, flu and RSV.

Health chiefs have called on those eligible to get their flu and Covid booster jabs to reduce their risk of becoming severely unwell and needing hospital care. 

They urged Brits to turn to pharmacies and local urgent treatment centres where appropriate, as increased virus patients is causing A&E delays to further spiral. 

Professor Riley said: ‘If you are showing symptoms of Covid or other respiratory illnesses, you should try to limit your contact with other people as much as possible, especially those who are older or more vulnerable.’

He added: ‘It is important that those people who are most at risk of severe illness and hospitalisation as a result of Covid come forward for their seasonal vaccination to make sure they have the best possible protection this winter. 

‘You can get a vaccine through your GP, by booking with a local NHS vaccination service, or you can find a Covid vaccination walk-in site.’




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